December 12-14, 2022 | Significant Tornado Outbreak

[ClicheVortex2014]

Dew point has doubled in the past 24 hours here. Can't get all 24 hours in a pic.

You can see the moist airmass moving northwestward, especially in Kansas and Oklahoma, below a strong jet stream moving northeastward. 

 

Edited December 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Well this'll be interesting

[ClicheVortex2014]

Somewhat small 10% hatched tornado

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0103 AM CST MON DEC 12 2022  
  
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN  
TEXAS TO SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL -- INCLUDING TORNADOES -- REMAINS EVIDENT  
FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA  
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO  
THE PLAINS, WHILE THE EMBEDDED/DEEPENING LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUT  
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO/ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH 14/12Z.    
  
AT THE SURFACE, AN OCCLUDING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A SIMILAR  
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK ACROSS NEBRASKA, WHILE A TRAILING FRONT CROSSES  
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD  
OVERNIGHT, REACHING THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS LATE.  
   
..EAST TEXAS EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI  
  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING FROM  
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY VICINITY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL  
TEXAS.  LIMITED SEVERE RISK SHOULD BE ONGOING, IN THE FORM OF HAIL  
ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND LOW-END RISK FOR STRONG GUSTS OR EVEN A  
TORNADO SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.  
  
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,  
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY -- WITH WEAK HEATING  
AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST SURFACE-BASED  
CAPE.  AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT STORMS SHOULD BE SURFACE-BASED,  
OR NEARLY SO, SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.  HERE, VERY  
FAVORABLY STRONG SHEAR -- VEERING AND INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY WITH  
HEIGHT -- WILL FAVOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  BY AFTERNOON, A BROKEN BAND  
OF FRONTAL STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING WESTERN  
ARKANSAS/EASTERN TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX AREA, WHERE DAMAGING WINDS  
AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IS EVIDENT.  A COUPLE OF STRONG  
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE -- ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ISOLATED STORMS  
WHICH CAN DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND.  
  
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS, STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY, WITH THE CORRIDOR FOR GREATEST DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO  
POTENTIAL EVIDENT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA, AND  
EVENTUALLY EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. 

 

[Iceresistance]

Severe storms expected in Florida on the 15th. 

[Iceresistance]

Slight Risk now includes all of Western Oklahoma

[ClicheVortex2014]

Ouch... not what I was hoping to see from HRRR

[ClicheVortex2014]

Persistent fog in tonights slight risk area

[ClicheVortex2014]

This system ain't messing around. 28 mph gusting to 40

Edited December 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Ingyball]

6 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

This system ain't messing around. 28 mph gusting to 40

52 and scattered showers here. I thought I could stay out and hit the driving range today, but with the wind it still felt too cold lol

[ClicheVortex2014]

Finally experiencing a legit dryline. I'm right on it, though more on the dry side. The ones in the spring will be more fun.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Some river effect clouds a little bit below the center of this loop

Edited December 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Dodge City

 

Amarillo

[CentralLA_Wx]

Looking like things could get rough tomorrow in my neck of the woods.

Almost exactly three years ago a long track tornado went across central Louisiana ending up going across the northern outskirts of Alexandria. Tornado tracked about half a mile from where I work (I was away from work at the time but co-workers saw debris in the air). 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_December_16–17,_2019#DeRidder_–_Rosepine_–_Alexandria_–_Pineville,_Louisiana

 

[Neoncyclone]

00z HRRR looks nasty for LA tomorrow, loops coming soon.

[Neoncyclone]

[ClicheVortex2014]

AMA has a special weather statement for this cluster

[ClicheVortex2014]

Tornado warning for the panhandles. Not working tonight 😞

[Ingyball]

5 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Tornado warning for the panhandles. Not working tonight 😞

Such an impressive storm system. Like I said if this had shown up in April or May we're probably talking about one of the worst Plains outbreaks in the last 10 years shaping up.

[ClicheVortex2014]

3 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

Such an impressive storm system. Like I said if this had shown up in April or May we're probably talking about one of the worst Plains outbreaks in the last 10 years shaping up.

Beast of a system. 120 knot 300mb/80 knots 500mb jet punching into the warm sector

[ClicheVortex2014]

Almost an hour since the first warning, though there was a 20 min break between warnings

 

Edit: new warning

Edited December 13, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Just barely outside of my first tornado watch here

[ClicheVortex2014]

 Mesoscale Discussion 2005
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0910 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022

   Areas affected...Southern Kansas...Western Oklahoma...Northwest
   Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 130310Z - 130545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop over the next few
   hours from southern Kansas southward across western Oklahoma into
   northwest Texas. Large hail, wind damage and an isolated tornado
   threat will become possible with the more intense cells. Weather
   watch issuance will likely be needed shortly.

   DISCUSSION...Convective coverage has started to steadily increase
   across the southern Plains as large-scale ascent has increased due
   to the exit region of the mid-level jet. In addition, instability
   has increased, partly due to moisture advection and partly due to
   cooling aloft. MLCAPE is now between 500 and 1000 J/kg according to
   the RAP. In addition, the latest WSR-88D VWP from Dodge City has 0-6
   km near 50 knots, with 0-3 km storm relative helicity near 400
   m2/s2. This will be favorable for supercells with large hail, and
   also potential for for wind damage and a few tornadoes. Weather
   watch issuance will likely be needed shortly as a squall-line
   gradually organizes and moves eastward across western Oklahoma,
   northwest Texas and southern Kansas.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Beasts

[ClicheVortex2014]

Still going strong. Still have that tornadic supercell in the CWA

[ClicheVortex2014]

Area average sounding for some warm sector cells tomorrow... as it stands, certainly not the same case as the last event where low-level lapse rates were the limiting factor. The area average 0-3km cape is 113. That's pretty solid.

 

Edited December 13, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014